Wimbledon men’s singles final 2024 preview: too close to call between Alcaraz and Djokovic
Imagine playing 334 points, and you end up only two points better than your opponent! That’s what happened when Djokovic lost to Alcaraz in the men’s singles final at Wimbledon last year
With the help of Craig O’Shannessy of Brain Game Tennis, Tennishead analyses Wimbledon 2024 with a unique understanding of how statistics effect tennis performance.
That was the 2023 Wimbledon men’s final, where Carlos Alcaraz triumphed in five sets over Novak Djokovic. Alcaraz won 168 points. Djokovic won 166. The score was 1-6, 7-6(6), 6-1, 3-6, 6-4. It was as tight as any tennis match could ever be, and today’s repeat final between these players promises to be much the same.
Let’s look at three match metrics which will prove to be pivotal battlegrounds on Centre Court this afternoon. It’s important to note that Djokovic played one less match than Alcaraz in this year’s tournament due to a withdrawal from Alex De Minaur in the quarter-finals.
1) Baseline Points Won (Tournament Average = 46%)
2024 To The Final
• Alcaraz = 50% (361/724)
• Djokovic = 50% (242/484)
Alcaraz and Djokovic have won right at 50% of their baseline points at The Championships this year. Normally, you would find these two baseline superstars up higher, around 53% to 55%, by the time they reach the final. This shows that they are not having it all their own way from the back of the court in 2024.
In the 2023 final, Alcaraz won 48% (93/192) of his baseline points against Djokovic, while the Serb won 45% (78/172). You almost never see Djokovic as low as 45% baseline points won in a match, so that reminds us just how tough Alcaraz can be to clash with in baseline exchanges.
In today’s final, only one player will win more than 50% of the points from the back of the court. It will be the match-winner.
2) Serve & Volley Points Won (Tournament Average = 69%)
2024 To The Final
• Alcaraz = 66% (40/61)
• Djokovic = 87% (45/52)
Alcaraz and Djokovic have combined to serve and volley 113 times at Wimbledon this year. They are both winning a high percentage of points with this crucial strategy as well. Djokovic, in particular, is off the charts, only losing seven serve and volley points out of 52. In last year’s final, Alcaraz won 40% (4/10) of his serve and volley points, while Djokovic won 44% (4/9).
I think today’s final will have more than 19 serve and volley points. I think the back of the court is going to be a tough place to win points, and coming forward makes much more sense.
3) Service Games Won (Tournament Average 83%)
2024 To The Final
• Alcaraz = 83% (95/114)
• Djokovic = 94% (80/85)
Djokovic has only dropped serve five times in five matches to the final (one walkover). Those are extremely impressive stats. Alcaraz has lost serve 19 times and is right at the tournament average of 83% won. In last year’s final, Alcaraz held serve 17/22 times, while Djokovic held 18/23.
Djokovic is enjoying holding his serve a lot more at Wimbledon this year than Alcaraz, and that confidence will carry over to the final.
Let’s hope for another epic five-setter this afternoon.
For free access to Craig O’Shannessy’s complete courses on ‘25 Golden Rules of Singles‘ and ‘25 Golden Rules of Doubles‘, join thousands of other keen amateur tennis players and become a member of the Tennishead Club. Once you join we’ll immediately send you ground breaking coaching advice, a welcome pack including a full ASICS head to toe outfit including shoes, plus loads more. And it costs as little as £79/$99 to join with membership benefits worth over £600/$700 per year!
Craig O’Shannessy is the creator of Brain Game Tennis. For 20 years he’s been involved in tennis as a coach to players like Kevin Anderson and even Dustin Brown when he famously beat Rafa Nadal at Wimbledon. More recently Craig’s been working as a match analyst at Wimbledon and for the ATP Tour. He has also used the unique insights from his match analysis software dartfish to guide players such as Novak Djokovic with analysis of opponents and performances.
Visit BrainGameTennis.com to read the latest and best selling course ‘Getting Tight’ where Craig teams up with Jeff Greenwald to combine their specific skill sets to help you with the universal problem all players struggle with in matches.
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