Vital component Novak Djokovic needs to improve for Wimbledon success is revealed
The baseline is your happy place to be when practicing. Unfortunately, It is a statistical nightmare in a match especially for Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon 2024
With the help of Craig O’Shannessy of Brain Game Tennis, Tennishead analyses Wimbledon 2024 with a unique understanding of how statistics effect tennis performance.
There are still 12 players left in the men’s draw, and they are all struggling to increase their win percentages above 50%. Here’s the list.
1. Taylor Fritz 59%
2. Jannik Sinner 56%
3. Alexander Zverev 56%
4. Alex De Minaur 52%
5. Novak Djokovic 51%
6. Tommy Paul 51%
7. Holger Rune 51%
8. Daniil Medvedev 51%
9. Carlos Alcaraz 50%
10. Arthur Fils 50%
11. Lorenzo Musetti 49%
12. Giovianni Mpetshi Perricard 43%
Three things stand out to me from the list. The first is Djokovic. After the first three rounds of The Championships last year, his average baseline win percentage was 57%. Against Alexei Popyrin in the third round, he only won 48%(47/97) of his baseline points. You have got to think that this has something to do with his right knee. I watched the Popyin match, and Djokovic did not want to slide on the grass out wide in the Deuce court for wide forehands. He was definitely protecting it, which is entirely understandable.
The second player that pops out at me is Taylor Fritz, who sits at the top of the list. Fritz has won 61%, 53%, and 63% from the baseline in his first three matches. Next up for the American is Alexander Zverev. Once the powerful serves come back in play, whoever can be north of 50% from the baseline will be the match winner.
Last on the list is Mpetshi Perricard. He is only winning 43% from the back of the court, but it’s not as big of a problem as it looks at first glance. The 20-year-old Frenchman has a monster serve and is looking to get to the net as much as possible in his return games to secure a vital break. He is not going to play many baseline points at all, so winning 43% is really not as bad as it looks.
There are also 12 women still left in the draw. Here’s their baseline performance so far.
1. Jelena Ostapenko 68%
2. Danielle Collins 61%
3. Anna Kalinskaya 585
4. Yulia Putintseva 57%
5. Emma Navarro 55%
6. Donna Vekic 55%
7. Elena Rybakina 55%
8. Elina Svitolina 55%
9. Jasmine Paolini 53%
10. Barbora Krejcikova 51%
11. Lulu Sin 50%
12. Xinyu Wang 49%
Sun won 52% from the baseline to stun Emma Radacunu in the fourth round yesterday, which was an amazing performance. Sun has crushed 75 forehand winners and 31 backhand winners from the back of the court and will look to play through Donna Vekic to reach the semi-finals.
Ostapenko has been lights out from the back of the court in the first three rounds, winning 65%, 69% and 71% of her baseline points. That’s an ominous warning for the rest of the draw. Ostapenko plays Putintseva for a spot in the quarter-finals.
There is a reason that baseline win percentages always hover around the 50% mark. It’s because the opponent can be at the baseline or the net. The front of the court is statistically always a great place to be.
For example, the average baseline points won for the tournament so far is 46% for men and 48% for women. At the net, the average win percentage is 67% for men and 64% for women.
The baseline feels like a safety net for your game but you can clearly see it’s rough place to make a living. Choose your battles wisely.
For free access to Craig O’Shannessy’s complete courses on ‘25 Golden Rules of Singles‘ and ‘25 Golden Rules of Doubles‘, join thousands of other keen amateur tennis players and become a member of the Tennishead Club. Once you join we’ll immediately send you ground breaking coaching advice, a welcome pack including a full ASICS head to toe outfit including shoes, plus loads more. And it costs as little as £79/$99 to join with membership benefits worth over £600/$700 per year!
Craig O’Shannessy is the creator of Brain Game Tennis. For 20 years he’s been involved in tennis as a coach to players like Kevin Anderson and even Dustin Brown when he famously beat Rafa Nadal at Wimbledon. More recently Craig’s been working as a match analyst at Wimbledon and for the ATP Tour. He has also used the unique insights from his match analysis software dartfish to guide players such as Novak Djokovic with analysis of opponents and performances.
Visit BrainGameTennis.com to read the latest and best selling course ‘Getting Tight’ where Craig teams up with Jeff Greenwald to combine their specific skill sets to help you with the universal problem all players struggle with in matches.
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