Alex De Minaur has a point to prove at Wimbledon says Wimbledon analyst
Aussie Alex de Minaur is through to the Wimbledon third round with a dominant 6-2, 6-2, 7-5 victory over Spaniard Juame Munar and next plays qualifier Luca Pouille. Arthur Fils or Roman Safiullin looms for a spot in the quarter-finals if he gets through that. It’s a nice draw that he needs to take advantage of.
With the help of Craig O’Shannessy of Brain Game Tennis, Tennishead analyses Wimbledon 2024 with a unique understanding of how statistics effect tennis performance.
De Minaur’s best result at Wimbledon was a run to the fourth round in 2022, losing 10-6 in the fifth set tie-break to Christian Maris. It’s time to go deeper into week two.
De Minaur spoke post-match about the extra motivation that he is drawing upon at Wimbledon this year.
“What’s driving me at Wimbledon is that I need to put up a decent performance here on the grass because I don’t want to be classified as a clay-court specialist. So I’m pushing hard. I’m trying to keep going,” De Minaur said.
Hopefully, I can have a better result. Therefore, the old clay court specialist gets thrown out the window. Year in and year out, I think it (grass) could be my best surface,” he said.
The game plan against Pouille will be simple. Don’t overplay the Frenchman’s world-class backhand. I watched Pouille play in qualifying at Roehampton a week ago, and the backhand is still exceptional. He hits it with more shape than most players and does an outstanding job of stepping forward to anything short.
The Pouille forehand, on the other hand, is typically his Achilles heel. The size of the backswing is significant, and you can rush him to that side. If the ball comes slower, he is fine, but if it comes deep or fast, then he gets too steep up the back of the ball. Pouille’s attacking forehand is solid. His defensive forehand is less so.
De Minaur’s forehand has produced over twice as many winners as his backhand side in his first two straight-set matches.
De Minaur Groundstrokes
Forehands
• Winners = 26
• Errors = 58
• Total = -32
Backhands
• Winners = 12
• Errors = 71
• Total = -59
As you can see from the numbers above, De Minaur’s forehand is outperforming his usually rock-solid backhand in the first two rounds. The Aussie has won 52% (126/244) of his baseline points in his first two matches and will be looking for a similar number in round three to come out as the victor.
De Minaur has also been the net 75 times in six sets, which equals 13 per set. He has won 65% (49/75) of those points, which shows he is performing well at the front of the court.
Playing with something to prove typically helps players a lot. The extra motivation to not only win the match but also to change a stereotype of who you are as a player is very strong. Look for De Minaur to get through this match and the next. Potentially looming in the quarters is a nicked-up Novak. He defeated the Serb in Perth at the start of this year, which will help a lot with confidence at SW19.
Prediction: De Minaur defeats Pouille in four sets.
De Minaur is a sponsored ASICS player and wears their lightest specialist tennis shoe, the ASICS Solution Speed FF3, which you can learn more about in this Tennishead exclusive play test video and review
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Craig O’Shannessy is the creator of Brain Game Tennis. For 20 years he’s been involved in tennis as a coach to players like Kevin Anderson and even Dustin Brown when he famously beat Rafa Nadal at Wimbledon. More recently Craig’s been working as a match analyst at Wimbledon and for the ATP Tour. He has also used the unique insights from his match analysis software dartfish to guide players such as Novak Djokovic with analysis of opponents and performances.
Visit BrainGameTennis.com to read the latest and best selling course ‘Getting Tight’ where Craig teams up with Jeff Greenwald to combine their specific skill sets to help you with the universal problem all players struggle with in matches.
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