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Opinion

Why I believe Mirra Andreeva will win the Madrid Open over Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff

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Mirra Andreeva has been in fine form at the start of the clay-court season.

Andreeva, 18, began the swing by winning the Linz Open, beating home favourite Anastasia Potapova in the final.

She continued to impress in Germany, beating Jelena Ostapenko and Iga Swiatek on her way to the Stuttgart Open semi-finals.

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In the last four, she was defeated by Elena Rybakina 5-7, 1-6.

Despite the loss, Andreeva remains one of the favourites for the Madrid Open title.

Mirra Andreeva’s clay-court form has been excellent

There is no getting away from one simple fact: Mirra Andreeva is currently playing at a level below that of Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina.

This was proven during her recent contest against Rybakina, who hit seven aces on her way to victory over the Russian in Stuttgart.

However, Andreeva has more than proven that she is capable of beating the best clay-court players on the WTA Tour.

This week, she knocked out Jelena Ostapenko and Iga Swiatek; two former Roland Garros champions.

Iga Swiatek of Poland plays a backhand in her match against Mirra Andreeva during day five of the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix 2026 at Porsche Arena on April 17, 2026 in Stuttgart, Germany.
Photo by Mathias Schulz/Newhouse Media/MB Media/Getty Images

Iga Świątek has not been playing at her best level as of late. However, both she and Ostapenko remain formidable clay-court players – individuals who most certainly have the ability to defeat Andreeva.

And yet they didn’t – Andreeva proved too strong for both of these clay-court maestros.

If Andreeva can improve upon her performances in Stuttgart, there is no reason why she cannot rival Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff for the Madrid Open title.

Mirra Andreeva holds her arms up in celebration
Photo by Mathias Schulz/Newhouse Media/MB Media/Getty Images

With that being said, how has Andreeva performed in Madrid in the past?

Mirra Andreeva’s Madrid Open debut

Mirra Andreeva made her Madrid Open debut in 2023 at only 16 years old.

The young prodigy made her mark at the event, first beating former US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez, 6-3, 6-4.

She then stunned 13th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia, beating the Brazilian 7-6, 6-3.

The Russian’s fabulous run continued against Magda Linette. Andreeva, a wildcard, overcame the Polish 17th seed 6-3, 6-3.

The youngster’s run came to an end in the fourth round: she was defeated by Aryna Sabalenka, 3-6, 1-6.

YearRoundOpponentScore
2023Fourth RoundAryna Sabalenka3-6, 1-6
2024Quarter-finalsAryna Sabalenka1-6, 4-6
2025Quarter-finalsCoco Gauff5-7, 1-6
Mirra Andreeva’s record in Madrid

Andreeva went one better the very next year, reaching the quarter-finals. Again she was defeated by Aryna Sabalenka.

Last year, Andreeva again made the last eight, before losing to Coco Gauff in straight sets.