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Ranking Coco Gauff’s chances of winning Wimbledon compared to every other women’s semi-finalist

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The four Wimbledon Women’s Singles semi-finalists have now been confirmed.

Coco Gauff, Marta Kostyuk, Linda Noskova, and Karolina Muchova will contest their respective semi-final matches later this week.

Gauff will compete against Muchova for a place in the final, while Kostyuk will face Noskova.

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The semi-final line-up is now confirmed…

None of these four individuals have reached the Wimbledon final before, let alone won the title.

So, who will emerge victorious on Saturday afternoon?

Coco Gauff

Gauff is the clear favourite for the Wimbledon title.

With the experience of winning two major titles in her back pocket, no other player is better prepared heading into the latter stages of this event.

Coco Gauff celebrates her win over Jessica Pegula at Wimbledon in 2026.
Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images

Gauff has struggled at Wimbledon in the past. Before this year, she had failed to advance past the fourth round in six attempts.

However, something has clicked for Gauff at this year’s tournament – as demonstrated by her impressive three-set victory over Jessica Pegula on Tuesday.

Can anyone prevent the American from winning her third Grand Slam title?

Marta Kostyuk

Marta Kostyuk has become only the second Ukrainian in Wimbledon history to reach the semi-finals.

Kostyuk, the 12th seed in south-west London, barely put a foot wrong as she swept to a 6-3, 6-2 victory over Jasmine Paolini in Wednesday’s quarter-final match.

Marta Kostyuk of Ukraine celebrates winning match point against Jasmine Paolini of Italy during their Ladies' Singles quarterfinal match on day ten of The Championships Wimbledon 2026 at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club on July 08, 2026 in London, England.
Photo by Matthias Hangst/Getty Images

The Ukrainian has now made back-to-back semi-final appearances at major events, following her impressive run to the semi-finals at Roland Garros last month.

Kostyuk has now joined Elina Svitolina as the only Ukrainian players to reach the Wimbledon last four.

After such a dominant performance against Jasmine Paolini – during which she lost only two points on her first serve – Kostyuk has to be considered the second-most likely champion at the All England Club this year.

Statistical AreaMarta KostyukJasmine Paolini
Aces30
Double Faults31
First-serve %5066
First-serve points won [%]9060
Second-serve points won [%]6741
Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini serving statistics

Linda Noskova

Noskova has well and truly established herself as an elite grass-court player.

The 21-year-old Czech star, who won the Berlin Tennis Championships last month, has beaten the likes of Madison Keys and Sorana Cirstea en route to the semi-finals in London.

Linda Noskova of Czechia acknowledges the crowd following victory over Elise Mertens of Belgium during their Ladies' Singles quarterfinal match on day ten of The Championships Wimbledon 2026 at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club on July 08, 2026 in London, England.
Photo by James Fearn/Getty Images

Noskova’s title credentials were further strengthened on Wednesday afternoon when she defeated another excellent grass-court player – Elise Mertens – in straight sets.

Czech players have performed extremely well at Wimbledon in recent years, with Marketa Vondrousova and Barbora Krejcikova winning the women’s singles titles in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Who’s to say that Noskova cannot continue this run of Czech supremacy?

Karolina Muchova

Some may be surprised to see Karolina Muchova ranked so low.

Karolina Muchova of the Czech Republic signs autographs after her victory against Naomi Osaka of Japan in the quarter-final round of the Ladies' Singles Competition on No.1 Court during the Wimbledon Lawn Tennis Championships at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club at Wimbledon on July 7th, 2026, in London, England.
Photo by Tim Clayton/Getty Images

The Czech star is perhaps the most experienced player of the remaining crop and one of only two to reach the semi-finals of every major tournament.

However, her ranking in this list has little to do with her play. It has everything to do with her opponent in the semi-finals.

Make no mistake – Muchova is facing the most talented, accomplished young player on the circuit.

Muchova has also struggled against Gauff in the past, winning just one of her seven matches against Gauff.

TournamentWinnerScore
2023 Cincinnati OpenGauff6-3, 6-4
2023 US OpenGauff6-4, 7-5
2024 China OpenGauff6-1, 6-3
2025 United CupGauff6-1, 6-4
2026 Australian OpenGauff6-1, 3-6, 6-3
2026 Miami OpenGauff6-1, 6-1
2026 Stuttgart OpenMuchova6-3, 5-7, 6-3
Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova

However, there is hope for the Czech. After all, she defeated Gauff in their last meeting at the 2026 Stuttgart Open.