Jannik Sinner has one final chance to retake the world number one spot from Carlos Alcaraz before the 2025 tennis season concludes.
It has been a fiercely contested year from the top two players in the men’s game, with the Italian having led the race for much of the campaign.
However, across a stunning run of tournaments which saw Carlos Alcaraz reach nine consecutive finals, the Spaniard snatched the title of world number one back from his generational rival as he toppled the reigning champion in New York.
It felt like, following that, the year-end number one had been decided.
But a surprisingly poor Paris Masters campaign from Alcaraz has opened the door for Jannik Sinner, who has just seen his chances of once again retaking the lead boosted as the groups for the ATP Finals have emerged.
Full ATP Finals groups are revealed
Naturally, Alcaraz and Sinner have been separated, and the two are still poised to meet in the final.
However, it feels far more certain that Sinner will end up in that position, given the group he has been gifted.
Firstly, Alexander Zverev should mark a relatively easy task, if their recent history is anything to go by.
In fact, Sinner has brushed the German aside twice in the last few weeks: first in a hard-fought final in Vienna, and most recently in the Paris semi-finals, where he dismantled the world number three in straight sets, conceding just one game all match.
He leads their head-to-head 5-4.
Elsewhere, Ben Shelton could pose a threat, but he is actually without a career win over Sinner in three years, having lost their last seven meetings.
| Group Jimmy Connors | Group Bjorn Borg |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Jannik Sinner |
| Novak Djokovic | Alexander Zverev |
| Taylor Fritz | Ben Shelton |
| Alex de Minaur | Lorenzo Musetti / Felix Auger-Aliassime |
And whilst the final spot of this group is yet to be decided, it will likely be of little consequence. Sinner has never lost to Lorenzo Musetti, and last lost to Felix Auger-Aliassime in 2022. The likelihood of his straightforward qualification seems secure.
Meanwhile, Carlos Alcaraz will have to face Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur in his group.
How can Jannik Sinner retake the world number one spot from Carlos Alcaraz?
It requires a very specific turn of events, but there is a very real possibility that the current Wimbledon champion will still end the year as the world number one, especially after Sinner won the Paris Masters earlier this month.
The 24-year-old must win the title if he is to return to the top, and even then, he is reliant on Alcaraz faltering.
Not only that, but Sinner needs to do it unbeaten as well, which would put him on 11,500 ranking points.
That is just 450 above Alcaraz’s total before the ATP Finals in Turin even starts.
If the six-time Grand Slam champion goes unbeaten in his round-robin matches, he will secure the necessary 600 points to make it impossible, with each match worth 200 ranking points.
It would take a miraculous Alcaraz collapse, but at least the likelihood of Sinner holding up his end of the bargain seems far more likely after the groups were drawn.
