Indian Wells draw preview: Sabalenka’s challenging start and Swiatek’s title defense analysed
The next 10 days we’ll be consumed by the first leg of legendary Sunshine Double, which kicks off at Indian Wells. Let’s break down the draw, exploring the potential hierarchy in each quarter before the seeds come into the action.
A Challenging Start for Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka leads the first quarter as the world No. 1. The ranking leader will look to bounce back in Indian Wells after a disappointing Middle East swing, which fell short of her expectations. Sabalenka could face one of the standout second-round clashes against McCartney Kessler. The American won a title in Hobart this year and was a finalist in Austin last week. According to the TennisRatio Power Index – she is among the top four players in this quarter, alongside Sabalenka, Kasatkina and Alexandrova.
The Champions’ Lodge
Coco Gauff leads the second quarter, but the American will aim to replicate her strong start to the season, where she won nine consecutive matches in Australia.
This quarter is packed with titleholders from the current season. Madison Keys returns to competition after a few weeks of break. The Australian Open champion could face a challenging opener against Anastasia Potapova in potential second round’s clash. Potapova, meanwhile, has already claimed a title this year, winning the WTA 250 in Cluj.
The other champions can clash in second round. Amanda Anisimova – the champion from Doha, can face Belinda Bencic – the Abu Dhabi winner. Other notable contenders there are Elise Mertens – who won in Singapore, or last week’s champion from Merida – Emma Navarro.
Top Performers in Third Quarter
Mirra Andreeva arrives in California on a hot streak, making her debut as a top-10 player following her triumph in Dubai. She could face an enticing second-round matchup against former Grand Slam champ – Petra Kvitova, who returns from maternity leave as a wildcard entrant.
Naomi Osaka another player to watch. Her performances during the Australian swing were promising, positioning her among the top performers in early-season rankings. Osaka could face the finalist of the previous WTA 1000 in Dubai – Clara Tauson
Meanwhile, Elena Rybakina, has displayed consistency this season, remaining solid but still awaiting a true breakthrough result. Jessica Pegula leads this quarter as the top seed, fresh off a victorious run in Texas last week following her strong performance this year. Pegula’s path to the quarterfinals could include a compelling clash with Rybakina.
Swiatek’s Title Defense Quest
Iga Swiatek has set her own standard at such a high level that even a season featuring an Australian Open semifinal, plus deep runs in the Middle East WTA 1000 events, is viewed as somewhat underwhelming. However, as the defending champion, Swiatek is the clear favorite in the fourth quarter at Indian Wells.
This section also features several players who have shown promising form this year, including Karolina Muchova and Linda Noskova – who records the consistent progress since the start of 2025.
Another key storyline is Paula Badosa’s form. The Spaniard was trending upward this year but was recently hampered by recurring back injury issues in Mexico last week.
Data supplied by TennisRatio.com, helping to visualize the performance statistics of the best ATP/WTA tennis players. Their analysis focusses on who performs best on serve and return, who dominates their opponents and who’s game most efficiently translates into results.
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