Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka recently contested a titanic battle in the Indian Wells final.
Rybakina led by a set and had won championship point during the final set tiebreak, but was eventually beaten 6-3, 3-6, 6-7 in the Californian desert.
Rybakina and Sabalenka have emerged as the two dominant forces at the start of this year; and few would bet against that dominance continuing into the future.
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The pair, now ranked first and second on the WTA Tour, are the favourites heading into Miami.
Despite Sabalenka’s excellent form, from one’s own perspective, Rybakina will be lifting the Miami Open trophy when the event concludes.
Why Elena Rybakina will win the Miami Open
Ahead of her opening match at the Miami Open, Elena Rybakina discussed how the court speeds in Miami – and her previous heartbreaks at the event – can help her win the title this year.
“They are a bit faster than Indian Wells, which is good for my game,” she said. “So I am super excited to be here.
“I have twice been very close to getting the title so that gives more motivation and hunger to finally get to the title.”
Rybakina’s assessment perfectly highlights why she is the favourite to win the Miami Open.
First, the faster the surface, the stronger Rybakina plays – and the Miami Open certainly has fast hard courts.
As per Tennis Abstract, the 2025 Miami Open had a court speed of 1.18. For comparison, Indian Wells’ 2025 event had court speeds of 0.72.
Rybakina, as discussed, has twice reached the final in Miami, losing to Petra Kvitova in 2023 and Danielle Collins in 2024.
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Of course, Aryna Sabalenka is the biggest threat to Rybakina’s title hopes, and the Belarusian is undoubtedly a strong contender for the title.
However, with Rybakina seeking a first title – and revenge for losing the Indian Wells final – I see the Kazakh having the motivation and skillset needed to outdo her peers and win the Miami Open title.
How did Elena Rybakina react after losing her second Miami Open final?
In 2024, Rybakina lost her second consecutive Miami Open final to Danielle Collins – the world number 53 at the time.
Collins, the former world number seven, became the lowest-ranked player to win the women’s singles title in Miami.
After the final, Rybakina reflected on her missed chances.
“Yeah, I had a lot of actually chances,” the Kazakh told reporters in Florida. “As I was saying before, sometimes luck on your side; sometimes not, because with all the chances I had, not to break once, I think it’s a bit of luck also there.
“But yeah, I was still trying to fight every point. I was still there, but yeah, as I said, it was too many chances which I didn’t take. So obviously it was difficult to come back after.”
Rybakina converted just one of 11 break-point opportunities against Collins, while the American converted three of seven on her way to a 7-5, 6-3 triumph.
