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Analyst reveals why Federer ‘has not reached his best level yet’ at Wimbledon

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He’s the greatest player to have ever stepped on the grass at Wimbledon with a record that may never be bettered, but at the 2021 Wimbledon championships Roger Federer still has some improvement ahead of him if he’s to reach his unbeatable best, says Tennishead’s statistical expert

“Roger Federer’s record at Wimbledon is truly remarkable. He is through to a record 18th Wimbledon quarter-final, and as he fast approaches his 40th birthday, this also makes him the oldest male player to reach Wimbledon quarter-finals in the Open Era. This quarter-final run is also pretty special given his two knee surgeries and limited match practice heading into Wimbledon 2021. As the numbers suggests, Federer is not at his best level yet. But he is actually not too far off it, which is extremely impressive, with the second serve seeming to be firing almost on all cylinders.

“Federer has struggled a little behind his first serve. So far he has won 77% of first serve points at the 2021 Wimbledon Championships, which is 4% less than he has averaged in the lead up to his previous 17 quarter-finals at SW19. His second serve has been quite good. Up to now he has won 62% of his second serve points, which is 1% less than 63% he averaged ahead of his other 17 quarter-finals. On return he has also not reached his usual heights yet. He has won 39% of return points, which is a 3% decrease on his usual numbers heading into Wimbledon quarter-finals.

Federer form prior to record 18th Wimbledon quarter-final“Federer reaching the quarter-finals, after two knee surgeries last year and with limited match practice, is an outstanding achievement in itself. But the Swiss maestro will not be looking to stop there. While Federer has not reached his best level yet, he is still playing quite well. He seems to be getting closer to his best with each round and will be hoping to keep this trend going, as the Championships progress to Sunday’s final. But above all else it is it is wonderful to see how Federer’s burning passion for tennis seems to never diminish. Given his age and the two knee surgeries the Swiss maestro has been through to get here, it is remarkable just how just much desire he still has to compete at the highest level.”

Luka Elliott has a B Com in Economics & Statistics from the University of Cape Town where his thesis was titled “Engineering Features for Tennis Match Outcome Prediction in a Statistical Learning Framework”. He now writes for Tennishead focussing on how statistics effect the outcome of ATP matches


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