Andy Murray Wimbledon 2019

Andy Murray’s comeback chances reliant on one key factor, expert identifies

Andy Murray has a record on grass that can only be beaten by Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, which makes his return this time round even more mouth watering says Tennishead’s statistical analyst

“Andy Murray makes his eagerly awaited return to tennis at the 2021 Cinch Championships. A lot of focus will be on how his body holds up and just how well he can play. This is no doubt the best time for him to test himself, as grass is clearly his best surface. He has an 84% win rate on grass, his highest across all surfaces, which is third best amongst active players behind Federer and Djokovic. While his return game has always been key to past successes on grass, he is also able to be effective behind his serve.

“Unsurprisingly Murray shines on return. He is third best amongst all active players for percentage of points won behind the first serve return on grass. On the second serve return he is the best. But, as much as Murray is not known for his serve, he also does quite well behind his own delivery. On grass he has the 14th best first serve and 13th best second serve amongst active players. As with any top player, he plays the important points well. On his favourite surface he is 14th best for break points saved, while for converting break points he is 9th best.

What makes Andy Murray so good on grass

“If Murray is to have a successful grass court season he will need to produce a high level of return of service. But if he can serve as well as he has in the past, that will also go a long way to making him competitive with the best. We should quite soon get a good idea of just where his level is at. If he overcomes Benoit Paire in his first round today, he sets up a potential mouth-watering clash with top seed Matteo Berrettini.”

Luka Elliott has a B Com in Economics & Statistics from the University of Cape Town where his thesis was titled “Engineering Features for Tennis Match Outcome Prediction in a Statistical Learning Framework”. He now writes for Tennishead focussing on how statistics effect the outcome of ATP matches

Tim Farthing, Tennishead Editorial Director & Owner, has been a huge tennis fan his whole life. He's a tennis journalist and entrepreneur as well as playing tennis to a national standard. He also helps manage his local club and volunteers for his local tennis organisation. He's a specialist in content about the administration of professional tennis and tennis coaching for all levels.