Elena Rybakina was a point away from winning Indian Wells, losing in a deciding-set tiebreak to Aryna Sabalenka.
The question is, can she bounce back in Miami?
Rybakina is a two-time Miami Open finalist, but suffered a shock second-round defeat at last year’s tournament to Ashlyn Krueger.
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She’s in better form now, although former world number one Yevgeny Kafelnikov isn’t expecting too much from Rybakina in Florida.
Yevgeny Kafelnikov thinks Elena Rybakina may struggle to hit her flat shots in Miami
During the latest episode of ‘Hard Court‘, Kafelnikov previewed Sabalenka and Rybakina’s Miami Open chances.
“Even in yesterday’s final, it was noticeable that she [Sabalenka] was a little out of control,” said Kafelnikov.
“That won’t happen in Miami.
2026 Indian Wells final – Match stats
| Stats | Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina |
| Aces | 10 | 12 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2 |
| 1st Serve % | 56% | 59% |
| Win % on 1st Serve | 66% | 61% |
| Win % on 2nd Serve | 60% | 74% |
| Winners | 29 | 42 |
| Unforced errors | 31 | 35 |
| Break points | 3/8 | 3/9 |
“In Miami, if you hit it there, the ball will always go inside the court.
“I’m more inclined to say Sabalenka will win than, let’s say, [Elena] Rybakina, I think that Sabalenka’s chances are preferable.
“Even [Iga] Swiatek has better chances than Elena.
“Elena will have a bit of a hard time because the balls will be heavy, and they’re going to get heavier and heavier with every point.
“It’s going to be very hard for her to hit those flat shots.”
Kafelnikov doesn’t think Rybakina’s game is suited to the conditions in Miami.
But what do the fans think?
TalkingPoints vote share
| Player | Vote share | Best Miami Open performance |
| Alex Eala | 43% | SF – 2025 |
| Elena Rybakina | 21% | F – 2023, 2024 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 16% | W – 2025 |
| Other | 7% | – |
| Coco Gauff | 5% | 4R – 2022, 2024, 2025 |
| Iga Swiatek | 5% | W – 2022 |
| Jessica Pegula | 4% | F – 2025 |
Rybakina is the second-favorite to win the Miami Open, ahead of Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff.
The only player with more votes is Alex Eala, a semifinalist last year, and one of the most popular stars in women’s tennis.
Who will Elena Rybakina play at the Miami Open?
Seeded third, Rybakina will receive a bye into the second round of the Miami Open.
There, she will meet either Janice Tjen or her countrywoman, Yulia Putintseva.
Assuming the highest-ranked players advance, she could then play Marta Kostyuk, Naomi Osaka, and Jessica Pegula on her way to the semifinals.
It’s there that Rybakina could face off against Sabalenka once more.
Rybakina trails Sabalenka 7-9 in their head-to-head, but has already beaten her in a big final this year, at the Australian Open.
Having lost last time out in Indian Wells, Rybakina will be determined to get one over on her Belarusian rival.
If she can take down Sabalenka, Swiatek may await the Kazakh in the final.
The Pole is a former champion in Miami.
She is, however, level in her head-to-head with Rybakina, 6-6.
Elena Rybakina’s H2H records vs projected draw opponents
- 2R – Elena Rybakina (0-0) Janice Tjen
- 3R – Elena Rybakina (4-1) Marta Kostyuk
- 4R – Elena Rybakina (0-0) Naomi Osaka
- QF – Elena Rybakina (5-3) Jessica Pegula
- SF – Elena Rybakina (7-9) Aryna Sabalenka
- F – Elena Rybakina (6-6) Iga Swiatek
Only time will tell who will emerge victorious in Miami, but you certainly won’t want to miss any of the action.
Rybakina will play Tjen or Putintseva in the second round later this week.
