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Opinion

Why Carlos Alcaraz’s reign as the new world number one already has a daunting expiry date

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Carlos Alcaraz’s win over Jannik Sinner in the US Open final was a triumphant one.

After all, it saw him avenge his loss in the Wimbledon final, whilst also proving that the Italian is not the all-powerful and unstoppable force on hard courts that many billed him to be.

No matter the surface, the Spaniard has the tools to trouble anyone; even Jannik Sinner is not immune to his prodigious talent.

However, perhaps the sweetest thing that Carlos Alcaraz took away from his triumph, aside from the US Open title, was the fact that he reclaimed the world number one spot by beating him.

It was a match that had so much on the line, and yet, it already feels like there is an expiry date on his reign atop the world rankings.

When Carlos Alcaraz will surely lose his world number one spot

Whilst he will surely finish the year at world number one and justifiably be rewarded for that, there is a daunting period of tournaments next year that cannot be ignored.

After all, the way in which the 22-year-old has soared to this spot was greatly aided by the fact that Sinner was not present for three months of the year after his doping scandal, despite being cleared of wrongdoing.

Carlos Alcaraz poses with the Monte Carlo trophy
Photo by VALERY HACHE/AFP via Getty Images

Although he did not miss any Grand Slam matches, the five-time Grand Slam champion was forced to watch as the entire clay-court season passed him by, aside from Rome and Paris right at the end.

During that period, Alcaraz went on an incredible streak, winning the title in Monte-Carlo, losing in the final in Barcelona, and then beating Sinner in the final in Rome.

Even before that, he also won a title in Rotterdam and reached the semi-finals of Indian Wells.

These are all points that Alcaraz will have to defend in 2026, whilst anything between the Australian Open and Roland Garros is a net positive for Sinner.

He could easily sweep up points across the three-month spell he missed this year, and dethrone Alcaraz as the world number one less than six months after he returned to the apex.

When Carlos Alcaraz became the youngest-ever male year-end world number one

This year should mark just the second time that Alcaraz finishes the year as the world number one, with the last time coming in 2022.

There, he beat Rafael Nadal to the title after results went his way at the Paris Masters, making him the youngest-ever male year-end number one.

Reacting to being anointed with that superstar level, he admitted, with a smile: “Of course it’s a great feeling, you know, to let’s say in a little part to feel the best player in the world (smiling).

“On this, it’s a number. For me, it’s just a number. It’s just a ranking. Obviously it doesn’t mean that you’re gonna win every match, every tournament.

“You know, every player can beat you. I see like that, you know, right now. I just feel I can lose every match, and that’s the most important thing. You have to play your best match in every match or at least you have to try to play the best level in every match. That’s what I see in that moment right now.”

Alcaraz has been forced to withdraw from Spain’s upcoming Davis Cup ties after his most recent US Open triumph, as he bids to regain fitness ahead of the gruelling end to the season.