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Why Carlos Alcaraz is the Monte Carlo favourite despite Jannik Sinner’s recent form

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Jannik Sinner is most certainly the man to beat on the ATP Tour after winning the Miami Open title.

Despite being ranked second in the world behind Carlos Alcaraz, Sinner has more than made his case as the world’s best player over the past month.

The Italian began March by winning Indian Wells for the first time in his career, defeating Daniil Medvedev in the final.

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Jannik Sinner waves with his Miami Open trophy
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

He followed this up by winning the Miami Open; becoming only the eighth man in history to complete the ‘Sunshine Double.’

However, despite his recent form, Sinner is not the favourite for the Monte-Carlo Masters.

Carlos Alcaraz is the Monte-Carlo Masters favourite

There can be no denying that Jannik Sinner is the most in-form player on the ATP Tour at the moment.

However, Carlos Alcaraz remains the most likely champion in Monte-Carlo.

Alcaraz is the defending champion in Monaco and has proven himself to be the best clay-court player on the ATP Tour.

Spain's Carlos Alcaraz (L) celebrates with the trophy after winning against Italy's Lorenzo Musetti the Monte Carlo ATP Masters Series Tournament final tennis match at the Monte Carlo Country Club in Roquebrune-Cap-Martin on April 13, 2025.
Photo by VALERY HACHE/AFP via Getty Images

Sinner, meanwhile, has only won one clay-court title in his career so far: the 2022 Umag Open [an ATP 250 event].

Of course, Sinner is an excellent clay-court player and his lack of accolades on the surface is somewhat surprising.

The 23-year-old Italian will most definitely be a major contender for the Monte-Carlo title, and one would not be surprised if he walks away from the tournament holding the winner’s trophy.

However, with Alcaraz having extra time to prepare for the event, the Spaniard is the clear favourite for the Monegasque title.

Alcaraz is already in Murcia preparing for the clay-court swing, while Sinner is set to travel to Europe on Monday.

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Jannik Sinner of Italy and Carlos Alcaraz of Spain attend the press cnference ahead of Hyundai Card Super Match at the Hyundai Card Headquarter on January 09, 2026 in Seoul, South Korea.
Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz’s Monte-Carlo debuts

Jannik Sinner made his Monte-Carlo Masters debut in 2021.

Sinner, who was unseeded, defeated Albert Ramos Vinolas 6-3, 6-4 in his first-round match.

The Italian was then defeated by Novak Djokovic, 4-6, 2-6.

A year later, Sinner reached the quarter-finals at the event.

The Italian, seeded ninth at the event, beat Borna Coric, Emil Ruusuuvuori and Andrey Rublev on his way to the last eight.

In the quarter-finals he lost to Alexander Zverev 7-5, 3-6, 6-7.

Alexander Zverev of Germany is congratulated by Jannik Sinner of Italy after his win in the quarter finals during day six of the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters at Monte-Carlo Country Club on April 15, 2022 in Monte-Carlo, Monaco.
Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images

Carlos Alcaraz, meanwhile, made his first appearance in Monte-Carlo in 2022.

The Spaniard, seeded eighth, received a bye through to the second round, where he lost in three sets to American Sebastian Korda.

Alcaraz missed the 2022 and 2023 events, before winning his first Monte-Carlo title in 2024.