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Why Carlos Alcaraz is still the French Open favourite over Jannik Sinner despite losing in Monte Carlo

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Jannik Sinner has been crowned the new world number one after the Monte Carlo Masters final.

Sinner defeated Carlos Alcaraz 7-6, 6-3; snatching the world number one spot away from his great rival.

Sinner has been in imperious form over the past month, and is now only the second man to win Indian Wells, Miami and Monte Carlo in the same year.

How would you rate that Monte Carlo final out of 10?

(Getty Images)

The Italian has also become only the third man to win four consecutive Masters 1000 titles, after Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

However, despite his recent form, Carlos Alcaraz remains the most likely Roland Garros champion.

Carlos Alcaraz performs at his best when the stakes are at their highest

It would be incredibly easy to label Jannik Sinner as the Roland Garros favourite after defeating Carlos Alcaraz in the Monte Carlo Masters final.

While Sinner’s form has been impeccable over the last month, he is not the French Open favourite.

Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters - Day Eight
Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images

Alcaraz, the reigning French Open champion, remains the favourite for this year’s Roland Garros title.

There can be little doubt that Sinner’s form is greater than Alcaraz’s at this time. The Italian is currently playing at a level that few others have matched in ATP history.

However, time and time again throughout his career, Alcaraz has responded positively to high-profile defeats. He is a player unafraid to tweak his game in order to move ahead of his rivals and will surely make adjustments ahead of his next meeting with Sinner.

Carlos Alcaraz’s 2026 results

Moreover, Alcaraz remains the most ‘clutch’ player on the ATP Tour.

When the stakes are at their highest, Alcaraz almost always performs at his best – as demonstrated by his remarkable comeback win in the 2025 French Open final.

Furthermore, talk of Alcaraz’s ‘poor form’ has been overstated. The Spaniard has only lost three matches on the ATP Tour this year, and has repeatedly played at an extremely high level.

Carlos Alcaraz speaks into a microphone
Photo by Jean Catuffe/Getty Images

There was little to split Alcaraz and Sinner in Sunday’s final; and when the time comes for Alcaraz to perform in Paris, one has little doubt that he will deliver.

Carlos Alcaraz’s first Roland Garros title

In 2024, Alcaraz won his first French Open title and third Grand Slam title overall.

The Spaniard, seeded third, defeated JJ Wolf, Jesper de Jong, Sebastian Korda and Felix Auger-Aliassime on his way to the quarter-finals; dropping just one set across the four matches.

Alcaraz’s excellent form continued in the last eight as he defeated former finalist Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets, 6-3, 7-6, 6-4.

RoundOpponentScore
First RoundJJ Wolf6-1, 6-2, 6-1
Second RoundJesper de Jong6-3, 6-3, 2-6, 6-2
Third RoundSebastian Korda6-4, 7-6, 6-3
Fourth RoundFelix Auger-Aliassime6-3, 6-3, 6-1
Quarter-finalsStefanos Tsitsipas6-3, 7-6, 6-4
Semi-finalsJannik Sinner2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3
FinalAlexander Zverev6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2
Carlos Alcaraz’s run to the 2024 Roland Garros title

Alcaraz then defeated Jannik Sinner in five sets, 2-6, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3.

In the final, Alcaraz again found himself on the brink of defeat – this time against fourth seed Alexander Zverev.

The youngster would not be denied, roaring back to claim victory, 6-3, 2-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-2.

During his post-match press conference, Alcaraz was asked how the triumph compared to his previous major victories at Wimbledon and the US Open.

“Well, I mean, it’s different tournaments, different aura, but I’m going to say same feeling,” Alcaraz began. “I mean, winning a Grand Slam is always special. Winning your first in every Grand Slam is always super special.

French Open Tennis Tournament. Roland-Garros 2024.
Photo by Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images

“But in Roland Garros, knowing all the Spanish players who have won this tournament and be able to put my name on that amazing list is something unbelievable.

“Something that I dream about being in this position since I was started playing tennis, since I was five, six years old.

“So it’s a great, great feeling.”