Elena Rybakina secured her second title of 2026 at the Stuttgart Open on Sunday.
Rybakina, who won her second major title in Melbourne earlier this year, defeated Karolina Muchova 7-5, 6-1 in the Stuttgart Open final.
After demonstrating excellent clay-court form in Stuttgart, Rybakina has the world number one ranking in her sights.
Is Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina the best rivalry in women’s tennis right now?
If not, who is?
With plenty of WTA events on the horizon, could the world number two usurp Aryna Sabalenka by the end of the clay-court swing?
Elena Rybakina’s path to the world number one ranking
Aryna Sabalenka would need to severely underperform at the Madrid Open for Elena Rybakina to claim the world number one ranking in the near future.
Sabalenka is currently on 10,895 WTA ranking points; 2,395 ahead of Elena Rybakina.
However, if Aryna Sabalenka were to lose in the early stages of Madrid, Rybakina would have the opportunity to significantly reduce the gap to her rival.
If Sabalenka were to lose her opening match, she would surrender 990 WTA ranking points.
This is because she won the 2025 Madrid Open and any opening loss at this year’s event would earn the Belarusian a mere 10 ranking points.
As for Rybakina, she can gain up to 935 points at this year’s Madrid event.
If these two scenarios were to play out, Sabalenka would end the tournament on 9,905 points, while Rybakina would be on 9,435.
The WTA top-five
- Aryna Sabalenka – 10,895
- Elena Rybakina – 8,500
- Coco Gauff – 7,279
- Iga Świątek – 7,273
- Jessica Pegula – 6,136
Rybakina would then have the opportunity to overtake Sabalenka by outperforming the Belarusian at the Italian Open.
Rybakina reached the round of 32 at last year’s event, meaning she could gain a further 935 points at this year’s tournament.
Meanwhile, Sabalenka is defending 215 points in Rome after reaching last year’s quarter-finals.
Therefore, Sabalenka would need to reach the semi-finals – which would earn her an extra 170 ranking points to ensure Rybakina cannot claim the world number one spot.
If Sabalenka were to lose before the semi-finals, Rybakina would take the world number one spot with a title victory in Rome.
Who wins more Grand Slams in their career – Elena Rybakina or Aryna Sabalenka?
When did Aryna Sabalenka first become world number one?
At the 2023 US Open, Jelena Ostapenko secured the world number ranking for Aryna Sabalenka.
Ostapenko, the 2017 French Open champion, defeated Iga Swiatek in the first round – sending Sabalenka into the top spot for the first time in her career.
After defeating Daria Kasatkina in her own fourth round match, Sabalenka revealed when she had first found out about her historic achievement.
“I find out this morning,” she told reporters in New York. “I just opened my phone and I was just like, ‘guys, I have match today, I have things to take care of. Thank you so much for all the support, for all the messages.’
“I didn’t ask for any of the messages because I was trying to stay focused on the game, don’t let this news distract me. I answered everybody only now.
“But, yeah, it was nice morning to wake up.”
Sabalenka went on to reach the US Open final that year, before losing to Coco Gauff in three sets.
