Aryna Sabalenka will clash with Elena Rybakina later today, in a rematch of the enthralling Australian Open final from earlier this year.
The winner will claim the Indian Wells title, but there is plenty more at stake than just silverware.
For Elena Rybakina, this represents another opportunity to exert her dominance over a top player, as she seeks to close the gap between her and the top-ranked player in the world.
Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka will be keen to prove why she is exactly that.
Frustratingly for the latter, her record against the Kazakh is far from perfect, and CoCo Vandeweghe thinks she knows why.
Aryna Sabalenka sent warning ahead of Indian Wells final vs Elena Rybakina
Speaking on Tennis Channel ahead of their clash, the pundit began by praising Rybakina’s ability to turn up for the big moments: “It just shows that when she gets deep in a draw, Elena Rybakina, she is dominant.
“We saw a couple of other stats where she’s 5 and 0 in finals. So you see her game come to full form, and her ability to tack her game onto the best in the world, and that’s not easy to do when you’re facing world number one, top ten players, to be able to use your game and actually beat them at first strike tennis, and Rybakina has shown that she has done it more times than not.”
What does Aryna Sabalenka need to change in 2026 to win multiple Grand Slam titles?
Chris Eubanks then added: “If she’s able to get to the final, clearly, that serve is firing, her ground game is firing, we’ve seen even in recent months, her movement has gotten a lot better. So if she’s able to play her way into form and reach a final, you know you were in tune for an inform Elena Rybakina. She can be very difficult to topple.”
This spurred Vandeweghe to explain why Rybakina is so dominant, not just in finals, but against Sabalenka particularly.
She concluded by stating: “The reason why is because their games are very similar in the regard that their backhands are the more solid wing, the forehands can break down.
“And when you see from Aryna Sabalenka, even if she’s having a good serving day, Rybakina’s not letting her into these rallies because she can handle the backhand to backhand cross-court rallies, so that just makes Sabalenka pull the trigger [down the] line a bit quicker than she wants.”
Brad Gilbert has predicted who will win out of Sabalenka and Rybakina, with the match starting later today.
Aryna Sabalenka’s record vs Elena Rybakina in finals
Whilst Sabalenka might lead the head-to-head against Rybakina, when it comes to any matches they have played in finals, the record is instead skewed against her.
And, for the Belarusian, that is what will be of most importance, given she so often is unable to convert her dominance over the WTA Tour into as many titles as she should.
Who wins more Grand Slams in their career – Elena Rybakina or Aryna Sabalenka?
Overall, her record in finals is positive, but 22 wins and 20 losses represent a surprisingly close win/loss ratio for such a superstar.
Sabalenka has played Rybakina in five finals, yet has won just once in the 2023 Australian Open.
Other than that, the world number one has lost to the new world number two in the 2023 Indian Wells final, the 2024 Brisbane final, last year’s WTA Finals and this year’s Australian Open.
