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The earliest Jannik Sinner can become world number one again after Carlos Alcaraz’s Miami defeat

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Carlos Alcaraz’s time at the Miami Open came to a shock end as he was defeated in three sets by Sebastian Korda.

Alcaraz believed he played well against Korda, but it wasn’t enough to continue his run at the Miami Open.

The Spaniard’s early exit from the tournament makes Jannik Sinner the overwhelming favourite to lift the trophy.

The door has also been opened for the Italian to oust Alcaraz from the world number one spot, which could happen sooner than you think.

Carlos Alcaraz of Spain poses with the trophy as he celebrates victory alongside runner up Jannik Sinner of Italy following the Men's Singles Final match on Day Fourteen of the Internazionali BNL D'Italia 2025 at Foro Italico on May 18, 2025 in Rome, Italy.
Photo by Dan Istitene/Getty Images

What needs to happen for Jannik Sinner to become world number one

Sinner can become world number one by the Monte Carlo Masters at the earliest, but he will need to play perfect tennis until then.

The Italian needs to win in Miami and Monte Carlo back to back in order to become the world number one yet again.

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If Sinner defeats Alcaraz in the Monte Carlo Masters final, he will be above his Spanish rival by 200 ranking points.

That would see a huge swing in ranking points as Alcaraz currently sits 2000 points above the Italian in the rankings.

Sinner lost his world number one status after losing to Alcaraz in the final of the US Open, but his ranking has been boosted by his three-month ban last term.

The Italian has not been defending any points since the Australian Open, so a victory in Miami would cause a major swing.

Alcaraz enjoyed an impressive clay court swing last term, and he will need to reproduce those results if he wants to hold on to his place at the top of the ATP Tour.

Who can possibly stop Jannik Sinner at the Miami Open?

Alcaraz’s defeat in Miami has blown the top half of the draw wide open, leaving Taylor Fritz as the only player inside the top 20.

However, Sinner has it considerably harder in the bottom half until he makes it to the final of the Masters event.

Felix Auger-Aliassime, Daniil Medvedev, and Alexander Zverev are all left in Sinner’s side of the draw, with all three impressing at the Florida event.

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Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner at the ATP Finals in 2025

Medvedev reached the Indian Wells final and is replicating his form in Miami, while Auger-Aliassime’s hardcourt prowess is better than most on the ATP Tour.

Zverev, too, has been finding some form in Miami, particularly on his serve where he has looked pretty unstoppable.

If Sinner makes it to the final he will likely win in Miami, but he could face stumbling blocks before he gets there.