Naomi Osaka lost to Aryna Sabalenka, 2-6, 4-6, in the fourth round of Indian Wells.
The Japanese star was comfortably second best in the first set, and despite an attempted comeback in the second, failed in her bid to reach the quarterfinals.
Her serve was poor at times, as Osaka made four double faults to Sabalenka’s zero in their second career meeting.
Aryna Sabalenka or Iga Swiatek… who do you prefer? 🤔
It wasn’t the serve, though, that was the most striking difference between the two players, according to former tennis pro, Ryan Harrison…
Ryan Harrison believes Aryna Sabalenka’s movement made the difference against Naomi Osaka
During Sky Sports’ post-match coverage, Harrison was asked what the biggest difference was between Osaka and Sabalenka.
“It’s got to be the movement,” he said.
“A lot of times throughout this match, [Aryna] Sabalenka, for as much firepower as she has, she was using quite a lot of variety, opening up the court.
“You can see how far outside the court [Naomi] Osaka is, and just how much ground she is having to cover; that was by design.
“Because Sabalenka certainly has the ability to go toe-for-toe with power if she wanted to, but just recognising that there was a substantial difference in how she could open up the court, I think that was very much a part of the gameplan to open up that forehand cross-court to get Osaka outside the court.”
Sabalenka executed her game plan to perfection as she secured her spot in the quarterfinals with a straight-sets win.
Indian Wells quarterfinals
- Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova/Victoria Mboko
- Alex Eala/Linda Noskova vs Talia Gibson/Jasmine Paolini
- Jessica Pegula/Belinda Bencic vs Sonay Kartal/Elena Rybakina
- Katerina Siniakova/Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchova/Iga Swiatek
It was a performance that impressed Harrison, as Sabalenka proved why she is good value for the number-one seed next to her name.
“It was a great match, the first set, she was dominant,” he said.
“Osaka played some of her best tennis there in the second set, to try and fight back. Every single time that it felt like Osaka was trying to make a push, Aryna had the answers, and she was able to step up.”
What could stop Naomi Osaka from winning a Grand Slam title in 2026?
Credit: Sofascore
Sabalenka will now prepare to take on either Amanda Anisimova or Victoria Mboko in the quarterfinals, but what’s next for Osaka?
Well, she’ll quickly turn her attentions to the Miami Open, which begins next week.
Osaka is a former finalist at the Miami Open, losing to Poland’s Iga Swiatek four years ago.
Naomi Osaka’s WTA 1000 record
| Tournament | Best performance | Latest performance | Win/Loss record | Win % |
| Qatar Open | QF – 2024 | QF – 2024 | 2-4 | 40% |
| Dubai Tennis Championships | 2R – 2017, 2019 | 2R – 2019 | 2-4 | 40% |
| Indian Wells | W – 2018 | 4R – 2026 | 17-6 | 74% |
| Miami Open | F – 2022 | 4R – 2025 | 17-8 | 68% |
| Madrid Open | QF – 2019 | 1R – 2025 | 6-6 | 50% |
| Italian Open | QF – 2019 | 4R – 2025 | 9-6 | 60% |
| Canadian Open | F – 2025 | F – 2025 | 11-6 | 65% |
| Cincinnati Open | F – 2020 | Q2 – 2024 | 7-4 | 64% |
| China Open | W – 2019 | 2R – 2025 | 13-3 | 81% |
| Wuhan Open | 1R – 2017 | 1R – 2017 | 0-1 | 0% |
She hasn’t returned to the quarterfinal stage since, but came close a year ago, when she led Jasmine Paolini by a set to love in the fourth round.
Can she go a step further in 2026?
Only time will tell.
Annabel Croft delivers her verdict on Aryna Sabalenka’s win against Naomi Osaka
Commentating for Sky Sports, Annabel Croft shared her thoughts on the match.
“My goodness, that was such an incredible display from her in all departments,” she said.
“The variety, monstrous serving, the slice backhand, the dropshots, the angles, the slice forehands, throwing in the odd serve and volley, she just brought it all out onto court.
“We were all intrigued by how this might go, given they hadn’t met in almost eight years.
“But I think we can see a huge difference in the direction of travel since that loss to Osaka all those years ago.”
When Osaka and Sabalenka last met (2018 US Open 4R), the Japanese star was ranked one place above the Belarusian (19th vs 20th).
Today, Sabalenka is the world number one, while Osaka sits outside the world’s top 15 (16th).
Both players have four Grand Slam titles to their name, but only one looks likely to add to their tally…
