Mirra Andreeva is now the favourite to win the Madrid Open.
The top eight seeds: Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff, Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, Amanda Anisimova, Elina Svitolina, and Jasmine Paolini are all out, leaving Andreeva as the highest-ranked player in the Madrid Open draw.
On Tuesday, Andreeva defeated Leylah Fernandez to reach the semi-finals, where she will meet American star Hailey Baptiste, who stunned Sabalenka in her quarter-final match.
Sabalenka is OUT in Madrid! How would you rate the Belarusian’s performance out of 10? 🤔
Two wins away from the title, Andreeva has a golden opportunity to make a statement in the Spanish capital.
Mirra Andreeva can announce herself as a Roland Garros favourite if she wins in Madrid
It’s easy to forget that Andreeva is still a teenager.
She turns 19 today, but has already achieved so much in tennis.
The Russian has won two WTA 1000 titles, reached a Grand Slam semi-final, and been ranked as high as fifth in the world.
But she isn’t being spoken about as a contender for the French Open title.
That could well change if she wins in Madrid.
If Andreeva can do what is now expected of her and lift the trophy, she will insert herself into the Roland Garros conversation.
Many worry that Andreeva doesn’t have the mentality to win a Grand Slam, and she herself claimed she wasn’t a ‘champion’ earlier this week in Madrid.
Winning a title under pressure, while her rivals falter, would ease some of those concerns.
Top eight seeds at the Madrid Open
- [1] Aryna Sabalenka – Lost in QF to Hailey Baptiste
- [2] Elena Rybakina – Lost in 4R to Anastasia Potapova
- [3] Coco Gauff – Lost in 4R to Linda Noskova
- [4] Iga Swiatek – Retired in 3R against Ann Li
- [5] Jessica Pegula – Lost in 3R to Marta Kostyuk
- [6] Amanda Anisimova – Withdrew
- [7] Elina Svitolina – Lost in 2R to Anna Bondar
- [8] Jasmine Paolini – Lost in 3R to Hailey Baptiste
She has arguably been the strongest player in women’s tennis on clay this year, winning 11 of the 12 matches she’s played, picking up the title in Linz before reaching the semis in Stuttgart and Madrid.
There’s no reason why she can’t win the title in Madrid, and if she does, surely then the tennis world will take her seriously as a French Open favourite.
After all, Andreeva has history at Roland Garros, qualifying for the semi-finals in 2024, before reaching last year’s quarter-finals.
En route to the 2024 semi-finals, Andreeva defeated Sabalenka, picking up one of the biggest wins of her professional career.
Andreeva isn’t the finished product, far from it, but there is no reason why she can’t challenge for the French Open in 2026.
Will Hailey Baptiste cause Mirra Andreeva problems?
Baptiste has already beaten two top seeds: Paolini and Sabalenka, in Madrid.
The 24-year-old is brimming with confidence and won’t fear anyone, even Andreeva.
However, her confidence may take a hit if she remembers what happened when they met at Wimbledon a year ago.
In their first and only career meeting, Andreeva made light work of Baptiste, dropping just four games in a dominant 6-1, 6-3 win.
Mirra Andreeva vs Hailey Baptiste – Match stats
| Stats | Mirra Andreeva | Hailey Baptiste |
| Aces | 3 | 1 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3 |
| 1st Serve % | 63% | 50% |
| Win % on 1st Serve | 65% | 50% |
| Win % on 2nd Serve | 64% | 38% |
| Break points | 5/7 | 1/9 |
Andreeva will be hoping for a repeat result when they face off in this year’s Madrid Open semi-finals.
If Andreeva beats Baptiste, she would then meet one of Karolina Pliskova, Anastasia Potapova, Marta Kostyuk, or Linda Noskova in the final.
2026 Madrid Open QFs
- Hailey Baptiste defeated Aryna Sabalenka
- Mirra Andreeva defeated Leylah Fernandez
- Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova
- Karolina Pliskova vs Anastasia Potapova
2026 Madrid Open SFs
- Hailey Baptiste vs Mirra Andreeva
- Marta Kostyuk/Linda Noskova vs Karolina Pliskova/Anastasia Potapova
2026 Madrid Open F
- Hailey Baptiste/Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk/Linda Noskova/Karolina Pliskova/Anastasia Potapova
Only time will tell who will emerge victorious in Madrid, but you certainly won’t want to miss any of the action.
Andreeva will meet Baptiste in the semi-finals on Thursday, April 30.
