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Katie Boulter’s chances of beating Jessica Pegula at the Madrid Open might have just increased

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Katie Boulter is set for a blockbuster match against Jessica Pegula in the second round of the Madrid Open.

Boulter defeated Taylor Townsend in the first round to set up the match and she did so without dropping a set.

The British star is not at her most comfortable on clay, but she has played more on the surface so far this year than Pegula.

Boulter could have been given another advantage over Pegula as the order of play in Madrid has been confirmed.

Katie Boulter (GB) in action during a Women's Singles qualifying 2nd round match against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (ESP) at the Miami Open on March 17, 2026, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
Photo by Chris Arjoon/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Katie Boulter’s potential advantage over Jessica Pegula

Boulter and Pegula will play last on the Madrid Open’s main court, with play not set to be played before nine o’clock.

As well as playing on European clay for the first time this year, Pegula has also gone on record with her struggles in evening sessions.

What is stopping Katie Boulter from staying in the WTA top 20?

“A fantastic player, was already in the top 20, and she has unfortunately – we have talked about it so many times on our podcast – unfortunately, she just has the yips.”

Andrea Petkovic on the ‘Petkovic Becker’ podcast.

At this year’s Australian Open, Pegula said she much preferred playing the afternoon session in quicker conditions.

After being knocked out of the Grand Slam by Elena Rybakina, Pegula said: “I’ve ‌been playing every match during the day. It’s playing much hotter, much faster. ‌

“Getting out there it was a nice night, cool, but very slow. It took me a while to get my feet under me. My timing was really off for a while and it’s hard against someone that hits as ⁠big as she does.

How do you rate Jessica Pegula’s chances of ever winning a Grand Slam?

“She adapted quicker and was hitting that big, heavy ball ‌at me … I was making a lot of errors, not staying through my shots ​as well as I could have.

“Then I think I finally started to find my timing a bit and play a lot better. So the conditions for sure … I was a little erratic in the beginning, overthinking it a little bit too and not just trusting the things that I had been ‌doing as well.”

There is a big ranking disparity between Boulter and Pegula, but the British star will be hopeful of her chances against the American.

Katie Boulter and Jessica Pegula’s head-to-head record

Boulter and Pegula have played each other twice on the WTA Tour, both times they were representing their nations.

Their first match came at the United Cup on the cusp of the 2023 season, which saw Boulter produce a comeback to beat Pegula in three sets.

Who is your favourite for the Madrid Open? 🤔

Mutua Madrid Open - Day Twelve
Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images

Pegula earned revenge at the Billie Jean King Cup as the United States knocked Great Britain out of the finals.

That match went to three sets too as Pegula’s victory helped the United States reach the final of the competition.

Their third match on the WTA Tour will be the first to be contested on clay, which is neither of the players favoured surface.

That could be a real leveller for Boulter, who started the match ranked 54 places below Pegula in the rankings.