Jannik Sinner and Casper Ruud will compete for the fifth time on the ATP Tour in Sunday’s Italian Open final.
Sinner, who is seeking a sixth consecutive Masters 1000 crown, has beaten Ruud in all four of his previous meetings with the Norwegian on the Tour.
Sinner last defeated Ruud in the quarter-finals of last year’s Italian Open, winning 6-0, 6-1 in the Foro Italico.
Who will win the Italian Open final?
Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud
Ruud, now ranked outside of the top 20, is aiming to win his second Masters 1000 title, following his triumph in Madrid last year.
Jim Courier, a four-time Grand Slam champion, has offered his take on who he believes will lift the Italian Open trophy on Sunday.
Jim Courier highlights Casper Ruud’s serve as an area that could trouble Jannik Sinner in the Italian Open final
Tracy Austin, the 1981 US Open Women’s Singles champion, began the Tennis Channel discussion by making her prediction for Sunday’s final.
“I’m going with Sinner, and I hope going to be a great final,” Austin said. “I guess if you’re Casper you’ve got to believe because of what he saw from Sinner’s physicality yesterday.”
Jim Courier [pictured below], a two-time French Open champion, then discussed what Ruud can do to make Sinner ‘uncomfortable’ during their fifth meeting on the Tour.
“You’ve got to get him uncomfortable,” said Courier.
“How do you make him uncomfortable once you’re in the rally? That’s really what it comes down to.
“And Casper’s got a great serve because he’s got a jack-in-the-box style. He’s one of the few players on Tour that takes the ball off the rise off his serve. It’s hard to pick up.
“So if he has a good day serving, that’s going to really help him out and you’ve got to watch out because Sinner’s had some great days serving in this tournament.”
The American later praised Ruud’s 2026 season, before analysing the effectiveness of his opponent’s serve in Rome.
“It’s been a really strong start to the season for Casper overall,” Courier added. “He had the hiccup in Monte Carlo where his calf muscle went out on him so he wasn’t able to pick up any points in Barcelona.
“But how is he going to pick up the serve of Jannik Sinner? That’s going to be a real key, because Sinner’s accuracy has been outstanding in this tournament.”
Courier, Austin and host Steve Weissman then turned towards a Tennis Channel graphic, which highlighted Sinner’s first-serve placement throughout the 2026 Italian Open.
Jannik Sinner’s record in Rome
- 2019: Second round
- 2020: Third round
- 2021: Second round
- 2022: Quarter-final
- 2023: Fourth round
- 2024: DNP
- 2025: Runner-up [lost to Carlos Alcaraz]
- 2026: Will play Casper Ruud for the title
The graphic showed that Sinner has landed 71 per cent of his first serves within the outer boundary of the service boxes.
“Normally when he hits to the green zone, last season it was about 65 per cent of the time,” Courier explained.
“This is a big lift in accuracy [71 per cent in Rome] and he’s not giving up speed to do it, so if Sinner continues to have a good day on serve like this, and you’ve got to keep in mind, Casper Ruud likes to return from very deep – wide serves are going to be very difficult for him with that type of accuracy, if Sinner can do this in the final.”
Austin then added: “I think you’re exactly right and Casper likes to return from so far back. He’s not comfortable changing that if it’s not working. He needs that time on his shots.
“He gets back, and he gets that rotation, tries to get it back deep and look for the forehand next. That’s what his plan is going to be. Let’s see how well he executes it.”
Austin went on to reaffirm her belief in Jannik Sinner’s title credentials, while Courier tipped Ruud to upset Sinner in Rome.
“Let’s mix it up. Let’s give Casper Ruud a chance,” Courier concluded.
“Let’s go off menu and be different from everyone else. So I’m going to give him a chance. I’m going to go with Casper Ruud in three sets.
“I think it’s going to be a little more competitive than certainly last year’s quarter-final.”
Jannik Sinner’s dominant victory against Casper Ruud in 2025
At the 2025 Italian Open, Sinner and Ruud were pitted against each other in the quarter-finals.
Sinner dominated all aspects of their contest, winning 6-0, 6-1 in the Foro Italico.
During Ruud’s post-match press conference, Ruud was asked to describe his opponent’s performance.
“It’s as near as perfect that I witnessed, at least as a player playing someone,” he said of Sinner. “Just got to give it to him.
“I mean, the first four games, I did maybe a couple unforced errors my forehand where I went for it, but I missed.
“Everything else that came out of his racquet and throughout the whole match, as well, feels like a hundred miles an hour plus.
“Every single shot from the forehand, from the backhand. Even on my shots that I feel at times are pretty heavy, it comes back just firing.
“It’s just immensely impressive. That’s really all I can say.”
Sinner went on to reach the final in Rome, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets.
This year, Sinner has already become the first Italian since 1958 to reach back-to-back Italian Open finals.
If Sinner were to defeat Ruud on Sunday, he would become the first Italian man to win the Italian Open title since Adriano Panatta in 1976.
