Carlos Alcaraz is expected to return to tennis at next month’s Cincinnati Open.
During his time on the sidelines, Alcaraz dropped down to world number three, below Germany’s Alexander Zverev.
Predict the ATP year-end top five!
Will Jannik Sinner still be on top?
However, there is a chance Alcaraz jumps back ahead of Zverev without playing a match.
Here’s how…
Carlos Alcaraz would return to world number two if Alexander Zverev loses early in Montreal
Zverev currently leads Alcaraz by 320 ranking points.
Official ATP Rankings
| Rank | Name | Country | Points |
| 1 | Jannik Sinner | Italy | 13,450 |
| 2 | Alexander Zverev | Germany | 8,480 |
| 3 | Carlos Alcaraz | Spain | 8,160 |
| 4 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | Canada | 4,740 |
| 5 | Alex de Minaur | Australia | 4,110 |
At the upcoming Canadian Open, an event Alcaraz will miss, the Spaniard has zero points to defend, while Zverev is set to defend 400, having reached the semi-finals 12 months ago.
So, Zverev cannot afford to skip the event or suffer a shock early exit, or he will surrender the number-two ranking to his younger rival.
Canadian Open ranking permutations
- Alexander Zverev wins the Canadian Open – Alexander Zverev stays #2
- Alexander Zverev reaches Canadian Open final – Alexander Zverev stays #2
- Alexander Zverev reaches Canadian Open semi-final – Alexander Zverev stays #2
- Alexander Zverev reaches Canadian Open quarter-final – Alexander Zverev stays #2
- Alexander Zverev reaches Canadian Open fourth round – Alexander Zverev stays #2
- Anything else – Carlos Alcaraz becomes #2
The German will receive a bye into the second round, but if he loses there or in round three, Alcaraz will jump back above him in the world rankings.
The good news for Zverev is that even if he does fall behind Alcaraz post-Montreal, it may not be long before he returns to world number two.
Alcaraz hasn’t played a match for over 100 days, and when he returns, he will have some serious points to defend.
The 23-year-old will defend 1,000 points at the Cincinnati Open and then a further 2,000 points in New York, at the US Open.
Zverev, on the other hand, will defend 500 points at the two events, 2,500 fewer than Alcaraz.
Even if Alcaraz defends all of those points, which seems unlikely given the time he’s spent away from the tour, Zverev could take number two for himself with a deeper run at Flushing Meadows, where he lost in the third round last year.
And to make matters worse for Alcaraz, he has another 500 points to defend when he leaves North America, having won last year’s Japan Open in Tokyo.
The reality is that Zverev will likely finish 2026 ranked above Alcaraz.
He leads Alcaraz by almost 3,000 points in the ‘Live ATP Race to Turin’, and has been good value for his spot in the rankings, winning his first Grand Slam title in Paris.
Live ATP Race to Turin
| Rank | Name | Country | Points |
| 1 | Jannik Sinner | Italy | 7,950 |
| 2 | Alexander Zverev | Germany | 6,540 |
| 3 | Carlos Alcaraz | Spain | 3,650 |
| 4 | Flavio Cobolli | Italy | 3,020 |
| 5 | Daniil Medvedev | Russia | 2,520 |
For Alcaraz to finish 2026 as the world number two, he may need to win the US Open and the ATP Finals, while hoping Zverev suffers a dip in form.
Whether that will happen as he returns from a long injury lay-off remains to be seen.
Has Carlos Alcaraz ever been year-end number one?
Year-end number one is pretty much off the table in 2026, but has Alcaraz ever finished a season ahead of everyone else?
Yes, he has. Twice in fact.
2022 year-end top five
- 1. Carlos Alcaraz – 6,820 points
- 2. Rafael Nadal – 6,020 points
- 3. Casper Ruud – 5,820 points
- 4. Stefanos Tsitsipas – 5,550 points
- 5. Novak Djokovic – 4,820 points
2025 year-end top five
- 1. Carlos Alcaraz – 12,050 points
- 2. Jannik Sinner – 11,500 points
- 3. Alexander Zverev – 5,110 points
- 4. Novak Djokovic – 4,820 points
- 5. Felix Auger-Aliassime – 4,190 points
Alcaraz finished top of the pile in 2022 and 2025.
If he can stay fit, Alcaraz will surely fancy his chances of finishing year-end number one for a third time in 2027.
