Aryna Sabalenka has only won four matches on clay this year, suffering shock defeats at the Madrid Open and the Italian Open.
The world number one won the Sunshine Double WTA 1000 events in Indian Wells and Miami, but hasn’t been able to replicate that dominance on clay.
At the Madrid Open, Sabalenka lost to Hailey Baptiste in the quarter-finals, before losing to Sorana Cirstea in the third round of the Italian Open.
Is Aryna Sabalenka playing well enough to win the French Open?
She's 4-2 on clay this year…
Former world number four Greg Rusedski thinks he knows what has gone wrong for Sabalenka on clay this year.
Greg Rusedski blames the tennis balls and conditions for Aryna Sabalenka’s poor form
During the latest episode of ‘Off Court Cuts‘, Rusedski delivered his verdict on Sabalenka’s recent struggles.
“The Dunlop ball. That’s a terrible ball,” said Rusedski.
“This week, we’re in Bordeaux with the Wilson Roland Garros ball, it’s much quicker, much harder, it’s much better.
“But also, [Aryna] Sabalenka doesn’t look like she can hit through the court.
“The results in Rome in the men’s and the women’s have been a little bit bizarre with some score lines.
“I’m not sure these conditions have really suited her. Rome was very, very slow, Madrid was a little bit bouncy, and hard to control the ball.
“But I have a feeling that Sabalenka is going to start peaking for Roland Garros.”
Sabalenka has only won a handful of matches on clay this year, but that hasn’t put off Rusedski.
He believes Sabalenka, along with several other players, can challenge for this year’s French Open title.
“You cannot pick anybody right now!” said Rusedski.
“Who is going to win the French Open?
“If you told me, Sabalenka, [Elena] Rybakina, [Iga] Swiatek, [Coco] Gauff… I do not have a clue who is going to win Roland Garros this year.
“I thought we were getting a little bit of a Rybakina/Sabalenka really dominating, with maybe Coco in the picture, Swiatek…
“Right now, it’s anybody’s guess!”
As Rusedski rightly pointed out, it’s almost impossible to predict who will win Roland Garros next month.
How have Greg Rusedski’s Roland Garros contenders played on clay this year?
Aryna Sabalenka
Skipping the WTA 500 event in Stuttgart, Sabalenka has only played the two WTA 1000 events on clay this year.
Entering Roland Garros with a 4-2 clay-court record for the year, Sabalenka could be in danger of losing early in Paris.
But if she makes her way through the first week comfortably, there is no reason why she can’t challenge for the title, just as she did a year ago.
Elena Rybakina
Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina made a fine start to her clay-court campaign, winning the Stuttgart Open title.
A surprise defeat to Anastasia Potapova followed in Madrid, before she bounced back in style at the Italian Open, reaching the quarter-finals, where she will meet Elina Svitolina.
Regardless of what happens in Rome, Rybakina should be taken seriously as a French Open contender.
Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek is one of the greatest clay-courters tennis has ever seen.
The Pole is a four-time French Open champion and was once compared to Rafael Nadal.
Switching coaches before the clay-court season began, expectations were high for Swiatek, and although she made a slow start, things are starting to look up for the six-time Grand Slam winner.
Is Iga Swiatek now the favourite to win Roland Garros?
What a performance!
Swiatek is a heavy favourite to win the Italian Open and will hope to carry that momentum through to Roland Garros, where she could win a fifth title.
Coco Gauff
Coco Gauff could very easily have had a disastrous clay-court season.
But the 22-year-old has fought back from a set down in five of her seven wins on clay this year.
It’s that grit and determination that took Gauff to the French Open title in 2025, and who’s to say she can’t repeat the feat in 2026?
Only time will tell who will emerge victorious in Paris, but in such an open field, you don’t want to miss any of the action.
The 2026 French Open begins on Sunday, May 24.
