Despite leading by a set, Taylor Fritz was unable to defeat world number one Carlos Alcaraz when the pair played each other at the ATP Finals on Tuesday.
The Spaniard, who will play Lorenzo Musetti in the final round robin match, defeated Fritz 6-7, 7-5, 6-3 on Tuesday.
Consequently, Fritz – who is hoping to end the year as world number three – has now failed to defeat Alcaraz once in five meetings on the ATP Tour. His only win against the Spaniard came at the 2025 Laver Cup – an exhibition event.
Fritz was certainly unfortunate not to beat Alcaraz: he performed superbly. Alcaraz, as ever, refused to be quelled, and ultimately proved why he is one of the two best players in the world.
However, could Fritz have made an adjustment to aid his chances of beating Alcaraz?
Mark Petchey certainly seems to think so, and they discussed the matter during their post-match analysis.
Mark Petchey suggests Taylor Fritz could have served and volleyed against Carlos Alcaraz
Mark Petchey, Emma Raducanu’s former coach, highlighted an adjustment Carlos Alcaraz made during the contest against Fritz.
After the first set, Alcaraz moved back on the return, initiating a drop in Fritz’s second serve speed and allowing the Spaniard to hit a faster second serve return.
Speaking on the Tennis Channel, Petchey said: “This is the beautiful thing about this sport. You can adjust to what your opponent’s doing.
“We know Taylor’s going to come out serving, and there’s not sort of one perfect fit from the start of the match in terms of a strategy. Sometimes you’ve just got to accept on the day that your opponent is doing something better than what you’re doing.
“Set one, let’s take a look at where Alcaraz was returning from, particularly the second serve. The blue line there in set one.
“As we moved into set two, not just the blue line but also the yellow line: just look at how far back Alcaraz went to return the serve. It also initiated a drop off in terms of speed didn’t in Jim, on Taylor’s second serve.
“And the numbers just gathered in intensity for the Spaniard.”
Former US Open champion Jim Courier continued the discussion, noting Taylor Fritz’s recent comments regarding the speed of his second serve.
“Fritz has spoken in the press this week about how he sees no reason to hit a harder second serve when players stand deeper,” Courier said.
“Why take on the risk of a double fault he says. Well, here might be a counter-argument to that.
“You see on the return of serves first set. Let’s look at the speed on the return of serves as well. The first serve return, 58mph. Second set, he starts to get a little bit more on it – 71mph from that deeper return position, and he’s starting to win more points.
“But the second serves, that’s where the rubber really meets the road. Up close in the first set, return of serves, how about a 15mph lift on that return Petch that is massive.”
Petchey continued: “Yeah it was huge. I mean, obviously, he’s coming from further back, so it does give Taylor a little bit of time to see it coming.
“I wonder whether Taylor could have maybe served and volleyed a little bit to try to counter that, to bring obviously Carlos a little bit closer. Then he could’ve gone back to serving a little bit faster. 103mph he averaged on his second serve in that opening set. Dropped down to 93mph.
“The other thing that was fascinating… obviously, by dropping deeper, it allowed Carlos to use all of his tools a little bit more. The average rally length on Taylor’s second serve in that opening set was just three shots. In set two it was six, in set three it was five.
“It allowed Carlos to obviously build rallies that were far more present for him to play rather than the short sharp stuff that was in Taylor’s wheelhouse.”
Courier went on: “And I asked Hawkeye earlier in the day having seen what Taylor said in the press conference about not seeing any reason to serve harder.
“Well what happens when he serves the lower speed serve? I said 95mph and above, how many points does he win over the course of the season.
“And below 95mph, how many does he win. Well he wins three per cent more points when he serves harder. So the answer might be to go a little harder on the second serve, we don’t know for sure.
“But Taylor is determined in his own mind that that doesn’t make sense, he’s calculated in his own mind that it’s not a risk worth taking. It might’ve been today.”
Petchey agreed with Courier’s sentiment, adding: He’s [Fritz] obviously got good logic, he’s obviously been hugely successful these last few… but I’m with Jim, when you look at the numbers, you’ve also got to look at the numbers of the caliber of opponent you’re playing in terms of the outcomes.
“Yes, as a collective, those numbers might suit your argument. But when you are playing the number one and two in the world, I’m going to go with Jim and say that you need a little bit more pace.”
A worrying trend for Fritz?
As stated previously, Taylor Fritz is now 0-5 against Carlos Alcaraz in ATP Tour competition [excluding the Laver Cup.]
The American is also 1-4 against world number one Jannik Sinner – Fritz has lost his last four matches against the Italian, dating back to March 2023.
Although Fritz has frequently been able to challenge both Sinner and Alcaraz during matches – taking multiple sets off the pair – he has been unable to take the next step.
This raises the question – will Fritz be able to overcome Sinner and Alcaraz on the Grand Slam stage in 2026?
Fritz’s performance against Alcaraz proves he is playing in the same ballpark as the Spaniard, and he has the weapons to defeat Alcaraz and Sinner in 2026.
