The Madrid Open has become a tough event to predict at the best of times.
The 2026 iteration of the tournament might just be the most difficult yet.
After all, with Carlos Alcaraz’s recent withdrawal due to injury, and Novak Djokovic also deeming himself unfit to compete, it feels like it’s Jannik Sinner’s trophy to lose.
But, there is more to it than that, as the Italian has yet to confirm his attendance.
With all this in mind, Brad Gilbert has tried to make sense of the next Masters 1000 event of the season and who might have the best chance of snatching this golden opportunity.
Brad Gilbert makes his Madrid Open prediction after Carlos Alcaraz withdraws
The 64-year-old began by assessing the conditions: “Now, you’re also forgetting about altitude. You got about 2,200 feet. And sometimes, if the weather gets warm there, that court will play unbelievably fast.
“So it actually gives a chance now to a serve bot, or gives a chance to, you know, like a Rublev. Somebody that’s a big hitter.”
Will you still be watching the Madrid Open?
Two BIG withdrawals…
Gilbert then explained what a key component the absence of both Novak Djokovic and Sinner is.
He added: “So, I think more than anything, we know when Alcaraz and Sinner are both in the tournament, they win the tournament. We still don’t know, obviously, if Sinner is out, my first inkling was when he did talk to Prakash at Monte Carlo, he wasn’t going. So I don’t want to sell him short.
The American then made another prediction: “But I also feel like, you know, that court should also, you know, favour a guy like Fils, who’s a big hitter, you know, but you wonder, the guy’s playing long into Barcelona, a quick turnaround.
“But we just saw the one-week tournament. I love the one-week Masters 1000. At a two-week Masters, if you do come from a win the week before, you have a little more time to break into it, but if I were going to the betting window, I would bet on the field.
“I would take, like, you know, some guy that’s not on the board, because I can see something unexpected happening. You can see an unseeded player making a semi there, maybe even somebody out of the top 20 in the final if all three guys are out.”
What Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic said about their Madrid Open withdrawals
Both Alcaraz and Djokovic took to social media to announce their withdrawals from the Madrid Open. Neither really came as a surprise either.
Djokovic had revealed he was dealing with physical problems hours before confirming his absence, as he wrote: “Madrid, unfortunately I won’t be able to compete this year. I’m continuing my recovery in order to be back soon. Hasta Pronto!”
Alcaraz followed suit not long after, with a post that read: “Some news is incredibly hard to share. Madrid is home, one of the most special places on the calendar to me, and that’s why it hurts so much not being able to play here for the second year in a row,” Alcaraz wrote on Friday.
“It especially hurts not to be in front of my people, in a tournament that means so much. Thanks for your love always and I hope to see you all soon.”
Carlos Alcaraz’s historical performance at the Madrid Open
With Alcaraz missing the Madrid Open for a second-straight year, it’s worth remembering how well he has performed at this event in the past.
In fact, it is one of only two Masters 1000 events that he has won twice.
| Year | Round reached | Defeated by… |
| 2024 | Quarter-finals | Andrey Rublev |
| 2023 | Winner | N/A |
| 2022 | Winner | N/A |
| 2021 | Second Round | Rafael Nadal |
The Spaniard’s first appearance came in 2021, where he reached the second round.
He would then break through in 2022, backing up his maiden title at this level in Indian Wells with another in his home country.
Alcaraz beat both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic on his way to that trophy, and would defend his crown in 2023, beating Jan-Lennard Struff in the final.
His most recent appearance was in 2024, where he lost to the eventual champion Andrey Rublev in the quarter-finals.
