Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have both made strong starts to their Monte Carlo Masters campaigns, as fans pray for their first meeting of the 2026 season in the final.
Theirs is a match-up we had become accustomed to seeing regularly throughout last year, and it certainly feels like there is unfinished business for the Italian on clay.
Jannik Sinner was forced to miss the bulk of the clay-court season in 2025 as he served his three-month ban, and as such, he has very few points to defend.
This was likely one of the contributing factors that led Carlos Alcaraz to predict his great rival would perhaps skip the Monte Carlo Masters, admitting he was shocked when that did not turn out to be the case.
Carlos Alcaraz explains why he didn’t think Jannik Sinner would play in Monte Carlo
Speaking at his latest press conference, the world number one was asked to expand on his comments earlier in the week, which detailed his surprise at Sinner for rushing from his title in Miami to Monaco.
Although it seemed rather self-explanatory, Alcaraz still delivered a measured response, claiming: “I mean, I just think of a lot of things ahead of like… it feels like we are guessing, the players, which tournament they’re going to play sometimes.
How will Carlos Alcaraz fare after receiving this draw in Monte-Carlo?
It's far easier than Jannik Sinner's…
“And obviously he was successful in Indian Wells, Miami, a lot of matches, a long swing, and from the last day in Miami until the first day here is like one week, I would say.
“So you come in from a different time difference. Different surface, different everything. Different balls, so it’s tricky when you don’t have that much time to prepare yourself for another surface, another kind of play, another tournament, another environment, I would say, but you know, it’s up to him obviously, and it’s the decision of every player to go to one tournament or another.
“So if he decides to come here, that means that he feels good physically, he feels good mentally, and he’s excited to come here.”
He then added: “But, you know, I was surprised because he has [played] a lot of matches in the last month, playing on hard court and not having that much time to rest and to prepare for clay, but we could see that he’s playing doubles. He played great today, so that means, you know, the great player he is, because he adapts himself really good in such a short period of time to one surface to another.”
Alcaraz has conceded that he will lose the world number one spot to Sinner soon, with the difference in points to defend in the coming months just too stark.
However, whether it is at Monte Carlo or not depends on his performance, which is a positive given that it will soon be taken out of his hands.
How Jannik Sinner can overtake Carlos Alcaraz in Monaco to become world number one again
There are a few permutations needed for Sinner to overtake Alcaraz and become the world number one again in Monte Carlo, and they all rely on the latter’s underperformance.
However, simply put, if the 24-year-old wins the title, he will re-ascend to the top of the rankings.
Carlos Alcaraz concedes Jannik Sinner will become world number one!
Will it happen this week in Monte Carlo?
Conversely, if Sinner does not reach at least the semi-finals in Monte-Carlo, Alcaraz will remain as the world number one.
If Sinner reaches the semi-finals and Alcaraz loses before the quarter-finals, Sinner will overtake his rival. If Sinner reaches the final and Alcaraz does not, Sinner will move ahead.
