Aryna Sabalenka battled through a tough semi-final last night, coming from a set down to knock out Jessica Pegula.
In a rematch of last year’s final on this same stage, the result was no different, and the Belarusian will now have the pleasure of facing Amanda Anisimova once again, just months after they met in the Wimbledon semi-finals.
Many will clamour to watch this evenly-matched affair between two of the game’s great ball strikers, but Aryna Sabalenka should be the overwhelming favourite given her success not only on this surface, but at this specific event.
However, there are a number of unpredictable factors that could swing the tie in Anisimova’s favour.
One pundit has suggested that, if Sabalenka does not correct a worrying trend exhibited against Pegula, it could prove to be her undoing.
Aryna Sabalenka sent warning ahead of the US Open final
Speaking on The Tennis Podcast, it was Matt Roberts who first pointed out the issues with the Sabalenka return, which effectively sacrificed crucial games in the deciding third set.
He first touched on Anisimova’s quality: “That’s one of the fascinating parts of the final matchup that we’ve got because Anisimova can do that as well to Sabalenka, when David talks about Anisimova not necessarily going out there and completely sort of dominating players with her power, but sort of using it back on them and turning it back on them.
“That’s what I think she does so well against Sabalenka. She uses Sabalenka’s pace and injects her own into it, and Sabalenka’s rocked by that.”
David Law, his fellow pundit, then added: “I mean, I am fascinated by her tactical approach in the final, in that regard. Does she go out and try to do what she did tonight and just seek and destroy, or does she settle back into that belief that she can time it?”
This prompted Roberts to analyse the Sabalenka serve, admitting he’d be worried if he were in her camp: “We’ve been talking about the Sabalenka return maybe not quite being at its peak at the moment.
“You look at that third set that she played tonight against Pegula. I know she got the break at the start, and I know in that sense, it kind of was classic Pete Sampras: Get the break and then just hold.
“But she got nowhere near the Pegula serve for the rest of the set. She lost 16 points in a row on return, Sabalenka… And I don’t think that she was holding easily enough or confidently enough to just be tanking those return games.
“I think it is a bit of a worry for Sabalenka going into the final. Like, because Anisimova, everyone is saying it, is pretty much as dangerous a returner as you can possibly get. Like, she is going to have looks at the Sabalenka serve. She’s gonna be hurting it with her own return.”
He finished by telling Sabalenka what she must do to ensure she gets the victory that many are expecting her to claim: “So Sabalenka needs to be getting into the Anisimova service games herself, and there will be times probably when Anisimova’s not serving her best, and Sabalenka will be able to get into them. But if Anisimova can get in the kind of serving rhythm that Pegula was in, like Sabalenka is gonna have to step up on her return game.
“I know she was generally brilliant tonight, and I thought she made a bit of a statement, because she was really impressive. But that is an area where I think Anisimova, going into this final, will be feeling like she might be able to exploit.”
Chris Evert thinks it would be especially important for Sabalenka to win this US Open title, having failed to win one all year thus far.
Aryna Sabalenka’s record in Grand Slam finals
Since 2021, Sabalenka has been a mainstay in the latter stages of almost every Grand Slam tournament she has entered.
And yet, for all her talent and fearsome power, she has only reached six finals.
Perhaps more worryingly, she boasts just a 50% conversion rate, having won three and actually lost her last two this year.
Sabalenka won her first-ever Grand Slam in her first-ever final, beating Elena Rybakina in the Australian Open final in 2023.
She would go on to lose in the final of the US Open later that year to Coco Gauff.
However, consolidating her hard-court dominance, she defended her title in Melbourne, this time beating Zheng Qinwen.
The 27-year-old was not to be denied in New York a second time though, this time defeating Pegula.
However, Madison Keys and Gauff have both thwarted her this year, and she will be keen to ensure another American does not get one over her in a major final.
