Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will face each other for the third time this year when they step onto court in Miami on Thursday.
The pair contested their first match in the Australian Open final, which was won by Rybakina in three close sets.
Two months later, Sabalenka had her revenge, saving a championship point before defeating Rybakina in the Indian Wells final.
Rybakina, who defeated Jessica Pegula on Wednesday, will hope she can avenge her loss in California when she steps onto court in Miami on Thursday.
However, Sabalenka has every chance of emerging victorious once again, should she improve upon one aspect of her game.
Aryna Sabalenka’s first-serve percentage will be crucial against Elena Rybakina in Miami
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina failed to impress on their first-serves when they played each other in the Indian Wells final.
As per Tennis Abstract, Sabalenka made only 55.6 per cent of her first serves: her second-lowest figure of the entire season.
As for Rybakina, she made only 58.3 per cent of her first serves.
There is little to split Sabalenka and Rybakina: they are clearly the best two players on the WTA Tour who cancel each other out with their powerful, high-velocity games.
With both players boasting extremely powerful first serves, this area of their Miami contest could prove the deciding factor.
| Statistical Area | Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina |
| Ace Percentage | 9.3 | 12.5 |
| Double Fault Percentage | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| First-serve Percentage | 55.6 | 58.3 |
| First Serve Points Won [%] | 66.7 | 62.5 |
| Second Serve Points Won [%] | 56.3 | 70 |
Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina’s previous semi-final meeting
In their previous 16 meetings on the WTA Tour, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have played each other in a semi-final once.
On that occasion Sabalenka prevailed, beating Rybakina 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 in the 2024 Madrid Open semi-finals.
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During the post-match press conference, Sabalenka was asked to explain how she turned the match around.
She said: “Honestly, I don’t know. I was just trying to do my best, trying to fight for every point. I was hoping that I’ll have opportunity to turn this match around, and yeah, super happy that I was able to do that.
“Yeah, happy with this tough match and with this tough win.”
