Before the clay-court season began, Aryna Sabalenka looked to be the clear favourite to win Roland Garros.
But the Belarusian hasn’t performed as expected on clay, losing to Hailey Baptiste in the Madrid Open quarter-finals, and to Sorana Cirstea in the third round of the Italian Open.
Struggling with a lower-back issue in her defeat to Cirstea, you have to wonder if Sabalenka remains the ‘clear favourite’ to win the French Open.
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Players aren't happy with the prize money on offer…
Former world number one Andy Roddick has now shared his thoughts.
Andy Roddick insists Aryna Sabalenka is still the favourite to win the 2026 French Open
During the latest episode of ‘Served with Andy Roddick‘, the American delivered his verdict on Sabalenka’s recent troubles.
“[Aryna] Sabalenka is not one who calls the trainer all the time. She plays these tough matches; her fitness levels are very underreported. We never say she looks tired, ever. We never say wear and tear or any of these things, because she is so primed and ready to go…” he said.
“She’s judged against her own shadow now. She’s created this level of consistency that’s absurd. So all of a sudden she has two bad tournaments, it’s strange, it’s different, it’s weird, it’s not the precedent she’s set.
Aryna Sabalenka’s 2026 clay-court record (4-2)
- Stuttgart Open (Withdrew)
- Madrid Open 2R [WIN] vs Peyton Stearns, 7-5, 6-3
- Madrid Open 3R [WIN] vs Jaqueline Cristian, 6-1, 6-4
- Madrid Open 4R [WIN] vs Naomi Osaka, 6-7, 6-3, 6-2
- Madrid Open QF [LOSS] vs Hailey Baptiste, 6-2, 2-6, 6-7
- Italian Open 2R [WIN] vs Barbora Krejcikova, 6-2, 6-3
- Italian Open 3R [LOSS] vs Sorana Cirstea, 6-2, 3-6, 5-7
“But it doesn’t mean that we need to go into full crisis mode for worrying about Sabalenka, I promise you, I worry about a lot of people a lot more than I do about her.”
Roddick did, however, suggest how some of Sabalenka’s biggest rivals may react to her dip in form.
“2020 was the first time Iga [Swiatek] won, has it been this open as far as hope for 20, 25 women?” he asked.
“If you’re [Linda] Noskova and you’ve been playing well, are you going ‘I can win Roland Garros’? If you’re [Marta] Kostyuk, are you going ‘I can win Roland Garros’?
“If Sabalenka is not in full form, and by the way, she can course correct that, if she makes the second week of Roland Garros then I don’t think anything matters. But is she more susceptible to drawing someone in an awkward match-up early on without a ton of matches? Sure.
WTA Tour Clay-court matches won by Roland Garros contenders (2026)
| Player | Matches won | Titles |
| Mirra Andreeva | 15 | 1 (Linz Open) |
| Marta Kostyuk | 11 | 2 (Open de Rouen, Madrid Open) |
| Jessica Pegula | 9 | 1 (Charleston Open) |
| Elena Rybakina | 8 | 1 (Stuttgart Open) |
| Coco Gauff | 6 | 0 |
| Linda Noskova | 6 | 0 |
| Iga Swiatek | 5 | 0 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 4 | 0 |
“It doesn’t mean she can’t win the French Open, it doesn’t mean she’s not the favourite, I still think she’s the clear number-one favourite going into Roland Garros, I don’t know you’re going to get a lot of push back.
“But what this does is Iga’s going, if I can just find some form, find something, I know how to do this, Aryna is not playing her best. Coco [Gauff] is going, maybe I can repeat this thing.
“Down the line, the women who are playing well, [Jessica] Pegula is winning matches 6-0, 6-0. Is she going, ‘Maybe I’ve got a shot!’
“I think that’s the ripple effect from Sabalenka, it’s less about us worrying about Sabalenka as a tennis player, more the ripple effect of the rest of the tour going if she’s not quite as perfect and good as she normally is, does that open the door for the rest of us 10 or 15%, and I think it does.”
Andy Roddick explains why he was more worried by Aryna Sabalenka in Rome than in Madrid
Roddick watched Sabalenka lose to Baptiste and Cirstea, but only one result really concerned him.
“I watched the match in Madrid start to finish, Sabalenka and [Hailey] Baptiste. I left that one going, ‘Baptiste played great, that was great tennis’. Sabalenka tortures the ball up the line, which basically would have set her up for winning the match, misses it by an inch, the swing was confident, it’s there,” he said.
“I don’t know that I felt that way watching the Cristea match.
“We love Cirstea, and we certainly want to give her flowers, but that’s not the type of match-up we’re used to Sabalenka losing.
“Just maybe a match-up Sabalenka has felt more comfortable in, I’m more worried coming out of that.
“We’re going to have to build something going into Roland Garros.
“I just think it’s open season, and more so, and I don’t want to be a victim of the moment, but more so than it’s been in the last seven years, pre-Iga domination.”
Only time will tell if Sabalenka can bounce back and silence the doubters when the French Open begins on Sunday, May 24.
