Andy Murray ‘not the best hope’ for British Wimbledon success, according to expert
With British tennis fans all dreaming of a home victory at Wimbledon 2021, Tennishead’s in house statistical expert says don’t just look at the obvious choice of Andy Murray
“Usually when Wimbledon comes around, the British pin their hopes on Andy Murray to have a successful run in the Gentlemen’s Singles event. But his lack of match practice this year, due to Covid and niggling injuries, is concerning. Dan Evans has been playing well this year; but it is Cam Norrie who could be the best British hope to have a good run at Wimbledon 2021. He is having his best ever season on the ATP Tour and is fresh off an outstanding run to the finals of the 2021 Cinch Championships.
“Murray, Evans and Norrie all played at Queen’s Club last week and there were encouraging signs, albeit of varying degrees, for all 3 of them. On serve Dan Evans impressed most, with Norrie not far behind. Evans won an impressive 71% of serve points and saved 90% of break points faced. Norrie on the other hand managed to win 70% of his service points and save a still quite impressive 79% of break points faced. Murray struggled a bit on serve and only won 63% of his serve points, while saving only 63% of break points faced.
“On return Murray fared better, albeit nowhere near his best. He won 35% of return points and converted a tidy 50% of his break point chances at the 2021 Cinch Championships. Norrie was also decent on return. He won 36% of return points and converted 46% of break point chances. Of the 3, Evans struggled the most on return. He won only 33% of return points and converted 44% of break point chances.
“While Murray showed glimpses of his best tennis, the struggles on serve are a worry. While he is never to be discounted, he will have to play better to have a good run at Wimbledon. Dan Evans’ serving during the Cinch Championships was very impressive. But to get far over the next fortnight, he will need to be stronger on return. The most impressive of the 3 has been Norrie. He served and returned well last week and almost beat Berrettini in the final. He could be the best British hope to have a good run at Wimbledon.”
Luka Elliott has a B Com in Economics & Statistics from the University of Cape Town where his thesis was titled “Engineering Features for Tennis Match Outcome Prediction in a Statistical Learning Framework”. He now writes for Tennishead focussing on how statistics effect the outcome of ATP matches
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